In this Risk & Opportunity, three areas that we need to pay close attention to are geopolitical conflict, significant shifts in tax policy, and climate change impacts. Understanding these risks, their potential impacts, and leveraging identified opportunities can significantly enhance organizational resilience, financial sustainability, and community impact.
1. Human Risk: Navigating Uncertainty
Recent geopolitical tensions underscore a critical vulnerability: human decision-making under extreme pressure. The U.S. President’s recent bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran sharply escalates the risk of retaliatory actions, placing American citizens and organizations at heightened risk, potentially even nuclear confrontation. Jeffrey Goldberg, in his June 26, 2025, article for The Atlantic, highlights humanity’s precarious position in high-stakes scenarios, referencing E.O. Wilson’s observation: “We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.” Goldberg underscores the daunting reality of a six-minute window in which a U.S. president must decide on nuclear retaliation, a decision fraught with catastrophic potential made under immense pressure and often with incomplete or inaccurate information. Ronald Reagan’s reported shock upon discovering this decision-making window emphasizes the extreme gravity of such responsibilities.The core concern is that having an unstable president can trigger an escalatory spiral, creating significant organizational risk.
Opportunity: Organizations must incorporate human risks into the risk management framework and proactively engage in scenario planning that includes “black swan” events. Developing robust decision-making frameworks enhances resilience and preparedness for unpredictable leadership risks.
2. Inflation Tax Risk: Facing the Hidden Costs
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” could potentially add $3 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade, as analyzed by the Tax Foundation and the Congressional Budget Office. This increased deficit poses a significant inflationary threat, diminishing the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and causing price instability. Recent erratic tariff policies have already resulted in a 10% decline in the dollar’s value.
Illustration: U.S. Federal Debt Growth With and Without the “One Big Beautiful Bill”
The supplemental scenario raises cumulative debt by $3 trillion, pushing debt levels roughly 5%–8% higher by 2035 compared to the baseline. This additional borrowing accelerates debt growth rates by approximately 2–3 percentage points annually during 2025–2034, further widening the gap between slow real GDP growth (~1.8% annual) and faster debt accumulation (now ~6–7% annual).
Opportunity: Organizations can mitigate these inflationary threats by strategically diversifying capital allocations, investing in assets that are anti-inflationary to safeguard financial stability. Inter CPA LLC does not offer investment advice; please consult your trusted financial advisor who has a fiduciary responsibility to revisit your investment portfolio and capital allocation.
3. Social and Human Cost Risks: Reduction of Safety Nets
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” codifies severe cuts to critical safety nets in health, weather, and energy sectors:
- Health-related: Severe reductions in Medicaid, Medicare, USAID, public health funding, and medical research. This could lead to approximately 11 million Americans and could result in over 14 million additional global deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children.
- Weather and Climate: Drastic funding cuts in climate research and disaster preparedness impair abilities to forecast and manage natural disasters, exacerbating vulnerabilities and resulting in elevated human and economic losses. The high human toll, particularly among children at Camp Mystic, Texas, was greatly exacerbated by governmental failures, notably ignoring climate change warnings and insufficient preparedness.
- Energy: Rollbacks in clean energy research and incentives, stalling the transition to a green economy, potentially increasing pollution-related health problems and widening economic inequality.
These changes substantially elevate global inequality and humanitarian crises, placing immense burdens on vulnerable populations.
Opportunity: Social enterprises and nonprofits should leverage innovative local initiatives, foster strategic public-private partnerships, engage in advocacy efforts, and pursue international collaborations to enhance community resilience and mitigate adverse effects. Additional opportunities include expanding direct service programs, developing sustainable economic initiatives, launching community-based health and disaster-response networks, and increasing educational programs focused on financial literacy and sustainability. Collaborating with philanthropic organizations and engaging corporate social responsibility programs can also supplement reduced government funding and amplify impact.
References:
Congressional Budget Office. (2025). The budget and economic outlook: 2025–2035. Congressional Budget Office. Retrieved from https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60870-Outlook-2025.pdf
Goldberg, J. (2025, June 26). What Trump doesn’t understand about nuclear war. The Atlantic. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/08/nuclear-proliferation-risks-iran-trump/683250/ 
Tax Foundation. (2025). “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” tax policies: Details and analysis. Retrieved from https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-senate-gop-tax-plan/ 
U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2025). Historical debt outstanding. Retrieved from https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/historical-debt-outstanding/historical-debt-outstanding
KFF Health News. (2025, July 8). Tracking the Medicaid provisions in the 2025 budget reconciliation bill. Retrieved from https://www.kff.org/tracking-the-medicaid-provisions-in-the-2025-budget-bill/ 
Cavalcanti DM, de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales L, da Silva AF, Basterra EL, Pena D, Monti C, Barreix G, Silva NJ, Vaz P, Saute F, Fanjul G, Bassat Q, Naniche D, Macinko J, Rasella D. Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis. Lancet. 2025; Published Online June 30, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2825%2901186-9
